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ETSY Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Etsy (ETSY - Free Report) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 21.

For the fourth quarter of 2023, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $827.4 million, indicating an improvement of 2.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 78 cents, suggesting an increase of 1.3% from the prior-year quarter’s actuals. The figure has remained unchanged over the past 30 days.

Etsy’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters but missed the same on the other occasion, the earnings surprise being 34.3%, on average.

Etsy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Etsy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Etsy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Etsy, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Note

Etsy’s fourth-quarter 2023 results are expected to have benefited from solid momentum across active buyers, driven by improved package tracking and on-time delivery solutions and enhanced coverage for estimated delivery dates.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for active buyers stands at 97.4 million, indicating growth of 2.5% year over year.

Growing investments to introduce new features for sellers, including a pricing optimizer for real-time information on market prices for similar items and a cost recovery insight feature for heavy users of sales and offers, are likely to have driven Etsy’s momentum among sellers during the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for active sellers stands at 8.8 million, indicating growth of 18% from the year-ago reported figure.

The company’s strong momentum in Etsy ads, on the back of its newly optimized Xwalk functionality to better value potential listing conversion and pricing, is expected to have boosted Etsy Services revenues during the to-be-reported quarter.

The consensus estimate indicates Services revenues to grow 6.6% year over year to $220.7 million.

Strength in the company’s Depop business, owing to its robust product and marketing strategies, is likely to have acted as a tailwind.

However, softness in consumer discretionary product spending due to macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical conflicts is expected to have negatively impacted gross merchandise sales (GMS) during the fourth quarter.

The consensus mark for GMS is pegged at $3.97 billion, indicating a decline of 1.6% from the reported figure in the prior-year quarter.

Sluggishness in large product categories like home, living and craft supplies is likely to have been a headwind for the company’s top-line growth during the quarter under review.

What Our Model Says

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Etsy has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering from the same space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their soon-to-be-reported quarterly results.

The Gap (GPS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +24.44% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Gap is set to announce fourth-quarter 2023 results on Mar 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GPS’ earnings is pinned at 19 cents per share, indicating growth from the year-ago quarter’s loss of 75 cents per share.

Eldorado Gold (EGO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Eldorado Gold is set to announce fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EGO’s earnings is pinned at 21 cents per share, indicating growth of 50% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Booking Holdings (BKNG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Booking Holdings is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BKNG’s earnings is pegged at $29.69 per share, suggesting a jump of 20% from the prior-year quarter.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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